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Cover of Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke

Thinking in Bets

Annie Duke · 2018

Professional poker player turned decision scientist. Investment decisions are bets made under uncertainty, and Duke teaches you to separate decision quality from outcome quality. A great investment that loses money isn't necessarily a bad decision; a terrible investment that profits isn't a good one. She calls the confusion 'resulting,' and once you see it, you can't unsee it.

The case against

One genuinely useful idea, resulting, stretched to book length. The Seahawks' Super Bowl interception gets replayed until you could call the coverage yourself, and the poker material thins out fast once Duke pivots to secondhand behavioral economics you have already met in Kahneman. A long magazine article wearing a book's binding.

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