Superforecasting
Decades of research on what makes some people consistently better at predicting the future. 'Superforecasters' aren't smarter — they update beliefs incrementally, quantify uncertainty, seek disconfirming evidence, and avoid ideology. Investing IS forecasting, and Tetlock's IARPA-funded tournaments proved ordinary people can outperform intelligence analysts. Celebrity and accuracy are inversely correlated.
Tetlock's actual research filled an academic book; this is the airport version, co-written with a journalist, and it shows. Anecdotes about clever retirees recur until the lesson (update small, keep score, distrust ideology) has been restated a dozen ways. The tournaments measured questions resolvable within months. Whether any of it transfers to the decade-scale bets you care about goes mostly unasked.
The case for it and the rest of the canon open with Pro.
